A scoring system for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in alcoholic cirrhosis.

The role of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is being questioned in alcoholic cirrhosis because of the relative low HCC risk. This study aimed to assess the risk and predictors of HCC in Korean patients with alcoholic cirrhosis by using competing risk analysis. A total of 745 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis were recruited at a university-affiliated hospital in Korea and randomly assigned to either the derivation (n = 507) and validation (n = 238) cohort. Subdistribution hazards model of Fine and Gray was used with deaths and liver transplantation treated as competing risks. Death records were confirmed from Korean government databases. A nomogram was developed to calculate the Alcohol-associated Liver Cancer Estimation (ALICE) score. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 15.3 and 13.3% at 10 years for derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, alpha-fetoprotein level, and albumin level were identified as independent predictors of HCC and incorporated in the ALICE score, which discriminated low, intermediate, and high risk for HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis at the cut-off of 60 and 100. The risk of HCC can be stratified by using a combination of readily available clinical parameters (age, AFP level, and albumin level) in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

Relationship Between Etiology of Cirrhosis and Survival Among Patients Hospitalized in Intensive Care Units.

OBJECTIVE: To determine short-term outcomes of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (ALC) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) compared with other etiologies of liver disease. In addition, we investigate whether quick sequential organ failure assessment accurately predicts presence of sepsis and in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with various etiologies of cirrhosis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 1174 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU between January of 2006 and December of 2015 was analyzed. Outcomes of interest included survival rates within the ICU, post-ICU in-hospital, or at 30 days post-ICU discharge. RESULTS: Five hundred seventy-eight patients were found to have ALC with 596 in the non-ALC group. There was no significant difference in ICU mortality rates in ALC versus non-ALC cohorts (10.2% vs 11.7%, P=.40). However, patients with ALC had significantly higher post-ICU in-hospital death (10.0% vs 6.5%, P=.04) as well as higher mortality at 30-day post-ICU discharge (18.7% vs 11.2%, P<.001). Sustained alcohol abstinence did not offer survival advantage over nonabstinence. The predictive power for quick sequential organ failure assessment for sepsis and in-hospital mortality for patients with cirrhosis was limited. CONCLUSION: Critically ill patients with ALC have decreased survival after ICU discharge compared with patients with other etiologies of cirrhosis, independent of alcohol abstinence.

Associations Between Alcohol Use and Liver-Related Outcomes in a Large National Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis.

Alcohol use can cause hepatic necroinflammation and worsening portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to evaluate the associations between degree of alcohol use and clinical liver-related outcomes according to etiology of cirrhosis. In this retrospective cohort analysis, 44,349 U.S. veterans with cirrhosis from alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were identified who completed the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Consumption questionnaire in 2012. Based on this score, level of alcohol use was categorized as none, low level, or unhealthy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess for associations between alcohol use and mortality, cirrhosis decompensation (new ascites, encephalopathy, or variceal bleeding), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). At baseline, 36.4% of patients endorsed alcohol use and 17.1% had unhealthy alcohol use. During a mean 4.9 years of follow-up, 25,806 (57.9%) patients died, 9,409 (21.4%) developed a new decompensation, and 4,733 (11.1%) developed HCC. In patients with ALD-cirrhosis and HCV-cirrhosis, unhealthy alcohol use, compared with no alcohol use, was associated with higher risks of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-1.19 and aHR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.08-1.20, respectively) and decompensation (aHR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.07-1.30 and aHR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00-1.16, respectively). Alcohol use was not associated with HCC, regardless of cirrhosis etiology. Conclusion: Unhealthy alcohol use was common in patients with cirrhosis and was associated with higher risks of mortality and cirrhosis decompensation in patients with HCV-cirrhosis and ALD-cirrhosis. Therefore, health care providers should make every effort to help patients achieve abstinence. The lack of association between alcohol use and HCC merits further investigation.

Role of Bacterial Infection in the Development of Acute Liver Failure in Patients with Decompensated Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis.

We examined 74 patients with acute decompensation of alcoholic liver cirrhosis: 34 (45.9%) with bacterial infection (group 1) and 40 (54.1%) without bacterial infection (group 2). The degree and index of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) were determined using an on-line CLIF-C ACLF Calculator and the levels of cytokeratin-18 fragments, TNFα, IL-1ß, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-8. In group 1, AST, cytokeratin-18, TNFα, IL-1ß, IL-6, degree and score of ACLF were significantly higher than in group 2. ACLF developed in 18 (52.9%) patients in group 1 and in 11 (27.5%) (p<0.05) patients in group 2. Within 1 month, 10 (29.4%) patients of group 1 and 2 (5%) patients of group 2 died (p<0.05). Patients with bacterial infection showed a more severe course of alcoholic liver cirrhosis and ACLF than those without bacterial infection.

Impact of Safety-Net Burden on In-Hospital Mortality and Hospitalization Costs Among Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis and Alcoholic Cirrhosis.

AIMS: Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and alcoholic cirrhosis disproportionately affect ethnic minority and safety-net populations. We evaluate the impact of a hospital's safety net burden (SNB) on in-hospital mortality and costs among patients with AH and alcoholic cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 2012-2016 National Inpatient Sample. SNB was calculated as percentage of hospitalizations with Medicaid or uninsured payer status. Associations between hospital SNB and in-hospital mortality and costs were evaluated with adjusted multivariable logistic regression and linear regression models. RESULTS: Among 21,898 AH-related hospitalizations, compared to low SNB hospitals (LBH), patients hospitalized in high SNB hospitals (HBH) were younger (44.4 y vs. 47.4 y, P < 0.001) and more likely to be African American (11.3% vs. 7.7%, P < 0.001) or Hispanic (15.4% vs. 8.4%, P < 0.001). AH-related hospitalizations in HBH had a non-significant trend towards higher odds of mortality (OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.98-1.65, P = 0.07) and higher mean hospitalizations costs. Among 108,669 alcoholic cirrhosis-related hospitalizations, patients in HBH were younger (53.3 y vs. 55.8 y, P < 0.001) and more likely to be African American (8.2% vs. 7.3%, P < 0.001) or Hispanic (24.4% vs. 12.0%, P < 0.001) compared to LBH. Compared to alcoholic cirrhosis-related hospitalizations in LBH, mortality was higher among medium SNB (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.17, P = 0.007) and HBH (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, P = 0.05). Mean hospitalization costs were not different by SNB status. CONCLUSIONS: HBH hospitals predominantly serve ethnic minorities and underinsured/uninsured populations. The higher in-hospital mortality associated HBH particularly for alcoholic cirrhosis patients is alarming given its increasing burden in the USA.

Obesity and accumulation of subcutaneous adipose tissue are poor prognostic factors in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

In alcoholic liver cirrhosis (LC) patients, obesity has become a problem that progresses into liver dysfunction. Herein, we investigated the relationship between the prognosis of steatohepatitis and body weight, along with fat accumulation in patients with alcoholic LC. We conducted a single-center retrospective study, enrolled 104 alcoholic LC patients without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on histological and clinical evidence, and investigated factors related to poor prognosis using multivariate Cox regression and cluster analyses. Cox regression analysis revealed three independent relevant factors: subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) index (median 34.8 cm2/m2, P = 0.009, hazard ratio [HR] 1.017, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.004-1.030), total bilirubin level (median 1.7 mg/dL, P = 0.003, HR 1.129, 95% CI 1.042-1.223), and prothrombin time value (median 64%, P = 0.007, HR 0.967, 95% CI 0.943-0.991). In the cluster analysis, we categorized the patients into three groups: no adipose tissue accumulation (NAT group), SAT prior accumulation (SAT group), and visceral adipose tissue prior accumulation (VAT group). The results of the three groups revealed that the SAT group displayed a significantly poor prognosis of the Kaplan-Meier curve (67.1 vs 21.2 vs 65.3, P<0.001) of a 5-year survival rate. Propensity score matching analysis of the SAT and VAT groups was performed to adjust the patient's background, but no significant differences were found between them; however, the prognosis was poorer (21.2 vs 66.3, P<0.001), and hemostatic factors were still at a lower level in the SAT group. These findings suggest that SAT accumulation type of obesity is a poor prognostic factor in alcoholic LC patients without HCC, and the hemorrhagic tendency might worsen the poor prognosis in such cases.

Diferencias por sexo y nivel de renta en la mortalidad y morbilidad directamente relacionadas con el alcohol en Navarra / Differences by sex and income level in mortality and morbidity directly related to alcohol consumption in Navarre

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Abstinence from alcohol and alcohol rehabilitation therapy in alcoholic liver disease: a population-based study.

Objective: Abstinence from alcohol is recommended in patients diagnosed with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and alcoholic cirrhosis (AC). We aimed to determine the impact of alcohol abstinence on prognosis of patients with AC and AH.Methods: All incident AC and AH patients in Iceland 2001-2016 were identified. Cirrhosis was confirmed clinically, biochemically, with imaging and histologically. Abstinence, alcohol rehabilitation and survival were analyzed.Results: Overall, 169 patients with AC and/or AH were identified. Eleven died during index hospitalization, leaving 158 patients for final analysis, median (IQR) age 56 years (48-65), 72% males. Over all 61 patients (39%) had AC, 40 (25%) AH and 57 (36%) features of both. Thirty-nine percent of patients remained abstinent during follow-up and 63% underwent alcohol rehabilitation. Moderate to severe ascites at diagnosis (odds ratio (OR): 3.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.37-7.02) and lack of alcoholic rehabilitation (OR: 5.28, 95% CI: 2.24- 14.11) were independent predictors of abstinence. Abstinence at one year of follow-up was not related to increased survival. Patients surviving one year, abstinence during follow-up was related to increased survival for both groups.Conclusion: Abstinence from alcohol following AC/AH diagnosis was achieved in 39% of patients. Abstinence was not related to increased survival for alcoholic liver disease patients at one-year, which might partly indicate that this might be a marker that some patients were 'too sick to drink'. AC and AH patients who survived one year and remained abstinent had a favorable long-term prognosis.

Trends in the Burden of Chronic Liver Disease Among Hospitalized US Adults.

Importance: One factor associated with the rapidly increasing clinical and economic burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) is inpatient health care utilization. Objective: To understand trends in the hospitalization burden of CLD in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study of hospitalized adults in the US used data from the National Inpatient Sample from 2012 to 2016 on adult CLD-related hospitalizations. Data were analyzed from June to October 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalizations identified using a comprehensive review of CLD-specific International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification and International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Survey-weighted annual trends in national estimates of CLD-related hospitalizations, in-hospital mortality, and hospitalization costs, stratified by demographic and clinical characteristics. Results: This study included 1 016 743 CLD-related hospitalizations (mean [SD] patient age, 57.4 [14.4] years; 582 197 [57.3%] male; 633 082 [62.3%] white). From 2012 to 2016, the rate of CLD-related hospitalizations per 100 000 hospitalizations increased from 3056 (95% CI, 3042-3069) to 3757 (95% CI, 3742-3772), and total inpatient hospitalization costs increased from $14.9 billion (95% CI, $13.9 billion to $15.9 billion) to $18.8 billion (95% CI, $17.6 billion to $20.0 billion). Mean (SD) patient age increased (56.8 [14.2] years in 2012 to 57.8 [14.6] years in 2016) and, subsequently, the proportion with Medicare also increased (41.7% [95% CI, 41.1%-42.2%] to 43.6% [95% CI, 43.1%-44.1%]) (P for trend < .001 for both). The proportion of hospitalizations of patients with hepatitis C virus was similar throughout the period of study (31.6% [95% CI, 31.3%-31.9%]), and the proportion with alcoholic cirrhosis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease showed increases. The mortality rate was higher among hospitalizations with alcoholic cirrhosis (11.9% [95% CI, 11.7%-12.0%]) compared with other etiologies. Presence of hepatocellular carcinoma was also associated with a high mortality rate (9.8% [95% CI, 9.5%-10.1%]). Cost burden increased across all etiologies, with a higher total cost burden among hospitalizations with alcoholic cirrhosis ($22.7 billion [95% CI, $22.1 billion to $23.2 billion]) or hepatitis C virus ($22.6 billion [95% CI, $22.1 billion to $23.2 billion]). Presence of cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, and comorbidities added to the CLD burden. Conclusions and Relevance: Over the study period, the total estimated national hospitalization costs in patients with CLD reached $81.1 billion. The inpatient CLD burden in the US is likely increasing because of an aging CLD population with increases in concomitant comorbid conditions.

Long-term outcomes in patients with decompensated alcohol-related liver disease, steatohepatitis and Maddrey's discriminant function <32.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with alcoholic hepatitis and a modified Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) <32 have a low risk of short-term mortality. However, few data exist concerning long-term outcomes. The aims of this study were to evaluate 5-year survival rates and to identify predictive factors for long-term prognosis in this patient population. METHODS: We studied patients from 2 centers who were admitted for hepatic decompensation (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, or jaundice) and who had histological findings of steatohepatitis and an mDF <32. Clinical and biological parameters were recorded at the time of liver biopsy and alcohol consumption was recorded during follow-up. We performed Cox proportional hazard survival analysis to identify factors associated with 5-year survival. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-one patients were included (male: 64%, mean age: 51.5 ± 10.3 years, presence of cirrhosis: 84%). The median model for end-stage liver disease and mDF scores were 14 (IQR 11.7-16.1) and 19 (IQR 11.1-24), respectively. During follow-up, 30% of the patients remained abstinent. Survival rates at 1, 6, 12, 24, and 60 months were 96.7 ± 1.6%, 90.1 ± 2.7%, 80.8 ± 3.6%, 69.9 ± 4.3%, and 50.7 ± 4.9%, respectively. The majority of deaths (80%) were liver related. In multivariable analysis, encephalopathy at baseline and alcohol abstinence were predictive of 5-year survival. The 5-year survival rates of patients without and with encephalopathy at baseline were 60.5 ± 5.8% and 29.7 ± 8.0%, respectively, and the 5-year survival rates of abstinent and non-abstinent patients were 74.0 ± 8.0% and 40.9 ± 5.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate of patients with alcoholic hepatitis and an mDF <32 is around 50% at 5 years. Hepatic encephalopathy at baseline and lack of alcohol abstinence impair long-term prognosis. New treatment strategies, including measures to ensure abstinence, are required. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with alcoholic hepatitis that is of intermediate severity have a low risk of short-term mortality but not much is known regarding long-term outcomes for these patients. This study clearly indicates that patients with intermediate disease characteristics have poor long-term outcomes. The presence of hepatic encephalopathy at the time of diagnosis and the absence of alcohol abstinence during follow-up are factors that predict poor long-term mortality.

The value of different CT-based methods for diagnosing low muscle mass and predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Low muscle mass impacts on morbidity and mortality in cirrhosis. The skeletal-muscle index (SMI) is a well-validated tool to diagnose muscle wasting, but requires specialized radiologic software and expertise. Thus, we compared different Computed tomography (CT)-based evaluation methods for muscle wasting and their prognostic value in cirrhosis. METHODS: Consecutive cirrhotic patients included in a prospective registry undergoing abdominal CT scans were analysed. SMI, transversal psoas muscle thickness (TPMT), total psoas volume (TPV) and paraspinal muscle index (PSMI) were measured. Sarcopenia was defined using SMI as a reference method by applying sex-specific cut-offs (males: <52.4 cm2 /m2 ; females: <38.5 cm2 /m2 ). RESULTS: One hundred and nine patients (71.6% male) of age 57 ± 11 years, MELD 16 (8-26) and alcoholic liver disease (63.3%) as the main aetiology were included. According to established SMI cut-offs, low muscle mass was present in 69 patients (63.3%) who also presented with higher MELD (17 vs 14 points; P = .025). The following optimal sex-specific cut-offs (men/women) for diagnosing low muscle mass were determined: TPMT: <10.7/ <7.8 mm/m, TPV: <194.9/ <99.2 cm3 and PSMI <26.3/ <20.8 cm2 /m2 . Thirty (27.5%) patients died during a follow-up of 15 (0.3-45.7) months. Univariate competing risks analyses showed a significant risk for mortality according to SMI (aSHR:2.52, 95% CI: 1.03-6.21, P = .043), TPMT (aSHR: 3.87, 95% CI: 1.4-8.09, P = .007) and PSMI (aSHR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.17-6.23, P = .02), but not TPV (P = .18) derived low muscle mass cut-offs. In multivariate analysis only TPMT (aSHR: 2.82, 95% CI: 1.20-6.67, P = .018) was associated with mortality, SMI (aSHR: 1.93, 95% CI: 0.72-5.16, P = .19) and PSMI (aSHR: 1.93, 95% CI: 0.79-4.75, P = .15) were not. CONCLUSION: Low muscle mass was highly prevalent in our cohort of patients with cirrhosis. Gender-specific TPMT, SMI and PSMI cut-offs for low muscle mass can help identify patients with an increased risk for mortality. Importantly, only TPMT emerged as an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

Natural history of histologically proven alcohol-related liver disease: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To date, studies into the natural history of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) have lacked long-term follow-up, large numbers of participants, or both. We performed a systematic review to summarise studies that describe the natural history of histologically proven ALD. METHODS: PubMed and Medline were searched for relevant studies according to pre-specified criteria. Data were extracted to describe the prevalence of ALD, histological progression of disease and mortality. Single-proportion meta-analysis was used to combine data from studies regarding rates of progression or mortality. RESULTS: Thirty-seven studies were included, reporting data from 7,528 participants. Amongst cohorts of hazardous drinkers, on average 15% had normal histological appearance, 27% had hepatic steatosis, 24% had steatohepatitis and 26% had cirrhosis. The annualised rates of progression of pre-cirrhotic disease to cirrhosis were 1% (0-8%) for patients with normal histology, 3% (2-4%) for hepatic steatosis, 10% (6-17%) for steatohepatitis and 8% (3-19%) for fibrosis. Annualised mortality was 6% (4-7%) in patients with steatosis and 8% (5-13%) in cirrhosis. In patients with steatohepatitis on biopsy a marked difference was seen between inpatient cohorts (annual mortality 15%, 8-26%) and mixed cohorts of inpatients and outpatients (annual mortality 5%, 2-10%). Only in steatosis did non-liver-related mortality exceed liver-specific causes of mortality (5% per year vs. 1% per year). CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm the observation that alcohol-related hepatic steatohepatitis requiring admission to hospital is the most dangerous subtype of ALD. Alcohol-related steatosis is not a benign condition as it is associated with significant risk of mortality. LAY SUMMARY: Knowledge of the natural history of a disease allows clinicians and patients to understand the risks that are associated with a medical condition. In this study we systematically gathered all the published data regarding the natural history of alcohol-related liver disease in people who had a liver biopsy. We used this data to define the prevalence of the disease, the annual risk of progression to cirrhosis and the annual risk of death at each stage of the disease.

Trends in Characteristics, Mortality, and Other Outcomes of Patients With Newly Diagnosed Cirrhosis.

Importance: Changes in the characteristics of patients with cirrhosis are likely to affect future outcomes and are important to understand in planning for the care of this population. Objective: To identify changes in demographic and clinical characteristics and outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study of patients with a new diagnosis of cirrhosis was conducted using the Indiana Network for Patient Care, a large statewide regional health information exchange, between 2004 and 2014. Patients with at least 1 year of continuous follow-up before the cirrhosis diagnosis were followed up through August 1, 2015. The analysis was conducted from December 2018 to January 2019. Exposures: Age, cause of cirrhosis, and year of diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall rates for mortality, liver transplant, hepatocellular carcinoma, and hepatic decompensation (composite of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, or variceal bleeding). Results: A total of 9261 patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis were identified (mean [SD] age, 57.9 [12.6] years; 5109 [55.2%] male). A 69% increase in new diagnoses occurred over the course of the study period (620 in 2004 vs 1045 in 2014). The proportion of those younger than 40 years increased by 0.20% per year (95% CI, 0.04% to 0.36%; P for trend = .02), and the proportion of those aged 65 years and older increased by 0.81% per year (95% CI, 0.51% to 1.11%; P for trend < .001). The proportion of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis increased by 0.80% per year (95% CI, 0.49% to 1.12%), and the proportion with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis increased by 0.59% per year (95% CI, 0.30% to 0.87%), whereas the proportion with viral hepatitis decreased by 1.36% per year (95% CI, -1.68% to -1.03%) (P < .001 for all). In patients younger than 40 years, 40 to 64 years, and 65 years and older, mortality rates were 6.4 (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6), 9.9 (95% CI, 9.5 to 10.4), and 16.2 (95% CI, 15.2 to 17.2) per 100 person-years, respectively (P < .001). Mortality rates decreased during the study period (11.9 [95% CI, 10.7-13.1] per 100 person-years in 2004 vs 10.0 [95% CI, 8.1-12.2] per 100 person-years in 2014; annual adjusted hazard ratio, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.86 to 0.88]) and were lower in those with alcoholic cirrhosis compared with patients with viral hepatitis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80 to 0.98]). Rates of hepatocellular carcinoma were low in patients younger than 40 years (0.5 [95% CI, 0.2 to 0.9] per 100 person-years). Liver transplant rates were low throughout the study period (0.3 [95% CI, 0.3-0.4] per 100 person-years). In patients with compensated cirrhosis, rates of hepatic decompensation were lower in patients younger than 40 years (adjusted subhazard ratio 0.78; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.99) and in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (adjusted subhazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.60). Conclusions and Relevance: The population of patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis in Indiana has experienced changes in the age distribution and cause of cirrhosis, with decreasing mortality rates. These findings support investment in the prevention and treatment of alcoholic liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, particularly in younger and older patients. Additional study is needed to identify the reasons for decreasing mortality rates.

Waiting List Mortality and Transplant Rates for NASH Cirrhosis When Compared With Cryptogenic, Alcoholic, or AIH Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis have excellent postliver transplant survival despite having many comorbidities. We hypothesized that this could be due to a selection bias. METHODS: We analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing data from 2002 to 2016 and compared postliver transplant survival of NASH (n = 7935) patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis (CC) (n = 6087), alcoholic cirrhosis (AC) (n = 16 810), and autoimmune hepatitis cirrhosis (AIH) (n = 2734). RESULTS: By 3 years of listing, the cumulative incidence (CI) of death or deterioration was 29% for NASH, 28% for CC and AC, and 24% for AIH, but when adjusted for risk factors, the CI was similar for NASH and AIH. The factors that increased the risk of waiting list removal due to death/deterioration were poor performance status, encephalopathy, diabetes, high Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Hispanic race, older age and a low serum albumin. Most patients were transplanted within the first year (median, 2 months; interquartile range, 1-7 months) of listing and by 5 years, the unadjusted CI of transplantation was 54% for NASH, 52% for CC, 51% for AIH, and 48% for AC. The adjusted CI of transplantation within 2 months of listing was higher for AC (subhazard ratio [SHR], 1.17), AIH (SHR, 1.17), and CC (SHR, 1.13) when compared with NASH, but after 2 months, adjusted transplantation rates decreased in AC (SHR, 0.6), AIH (SHR, 0.78), and CC (SHR, 0.95). The negative predictors of receiving a transplant were dialysis, female sex, nonwhite race, high albumin, and creatinine. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with NASH cirrhosis are not disadvantaged by higher waitlist removal or lower transplantation rates.

Patient Sex in the Setting of Liver Transplant in Alcoholic Liver Disease.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to analyze alcoholic cirrhosis in women who were to undergo liver transplant, including their biochemical and clinical characteristics, main complications, survival rates, and main causes of death compared with men with alcoholic cirrhosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our study included 400 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis, which we divided according to sex and viral infections. Biochemical parameters and the presence and degree of ascites and encephalopathy, liver function status, and liver rejection and survival rates were analyzed from 1 to 10 years and the main cause of death at 10 years. RESULTS: Patients with nonviral alcoholic cirrhosis and liver transplant had significantly better survival rates (84.1%) at 1 year versus those with viral alcoholic cirrhosis (74.5%; P = .036). Men with nonviral alcoholic cirrhosis (14%) and women with hepatitis C virus (29%) had the lowest short-term survival rates. In long-term survival analysis, the lowest rate was observed in women with nonviral alcoholic cirrhosis (26.1%), and the highest rate was observed in women with hepatitis C virus (42.9%). Liver graft failure was one of the main causes of death in male patients (19.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Women with alcoholic cirrhosis showed a higher rate of ascites and encephalopathy but lower liver graft rejection than men with alcoholic cirrhosis. Survival rates were similar between men and women, although slightly lower in women who had hepatitis C virus.

Evaluating Surveillance for Excessive Alcohol Use in New Mexico.

PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES: Prevalence of excessive alcohol use and alcohol-attributable mortality is much higher in New Mexico than in other US states. In 2010, excessive alcohol use cost the state roughly $2.2 billion. Moreover, age-adjusted deaths from alcohol-related chronic liver disease increased 52.5% from 14.1 cases in 2010 to 21.5 cases in 2016. In 2017, the New Mexico Department of Health piloted the Recommended Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) Surveillance Indicators for Substance Abuse and Mental Health, using 5 indicators to monitor alcohol use and health consequences. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the alcohol surveillance system implemented in New Mexico to ensure that the system yields useful, timely data that can help create effective public health interventions and that resources required for surveillance are adequate. INTERVENTION APPROACH: CSTE alcohol surveillance system data come from existing national and state-based surveys and vital statistics. EVALUATION METHODS: This evaluation assessed attributes defined in Evaluating Behavioral Health Surveillance Systems and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems. Assessment was informed through data collection, systematic literature review searches, and an interview with the alcohol epidemiologist at New Mexico Department of Health. RESULTS: The CSTE alcohol surveillance system in New Mexico is a useful, stable, and accepted system with good representativeness and population coverage. Data sharing and collaboration between centers within New Mexico Department of Health are well-established, making data access easy and timely. Lastly, the resources required for data collection are accountable and adequate. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: The CSTE alcohol surveillance system brings together information (alcohol consumption behaviors and associated morbidity, mortality, and policy-related measures) necessary to show a clear picture of the alcohol effects in New Mexico. This information yields useable, timely data from which the state can monitor trends and develop interventions to reduce the prevalence of alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality.

Meta-analysis of patient survival and rate of alcohol relapse in liver-transplanted patients for acute alcoholic hepatitis.

PURPOSE: This review investigated survival and alcoholic relapse following liver transplantation (LT) in patients with severe acute alcoholic hepatitis (AH) without 6 months of alcohol abstinence. METHODS: All studies comparing acute AH patients undergoing LT with a control group were included. CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and Web of Science databases were searched. Survival benefits or odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were assessed by meta-analyses using a random effects model. The study was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42017057971). According to the search results, two separate meta-analyses were performed: meta-analysis A compared early LT with medical therapy alone in patients with severe AH that were not responding to medical therapy and meta-analysis B compared LT outcome in patients with AH and chronic alcoholic cirrhosis (AC). RESULTS: The search yielded 2232 articles. Eight studies were included in the two meta-analyses-two studies in meta-analysis A and six studies in meta-analysis B. The two studies (n = 70) included in meta-analysis A revealed that 1-year patient survival was significantly higher in the LT group compared with the medical therapy-alone group (survival benefit, 15.88; 95% CI, 3.98-63.35; p < 0.0001). The six studies in meta-analysis B (including 1091 patients) showed that 1-year (survival benefit, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.95-2.89; p = 0.08), 3-year (survival benefit, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.79-2.18; p = 0.30), and 5-year survival (survival benefit, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.92-2.56; p = 0.10) were not significantly different between AH and AC groups. There was no significant difference in the rate of alcohol relapse between the groups (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.53-2.96; p = 0.60). CONCLUSIONS: Early LT is a life-saving treatment for AH patients that do not respond to medical therapy. The chance of alcohol relapse after LT is not increased in selected patients.

Estimate of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: More than 90% of cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occur in patients with cirrhosis, of which alcohol is a major cause. The CIRRAL cohort aimed to assess the burden of complications in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis, particularly the occurrence of HCC. METHODS: Patients with biopsy-proven compensated alcoholic cirrhosis were included then prospectively followed. The main endpoint was the incidence of HCC. Secondary outcomes were incidence of hepatic focal lesions, overall survival (OS), liver-related mortality and event-free survival (EFS). RESULTS: From October 2010 to April 2016, 652 patients were included in 22 French and Belgian centers. During follow-up (median 29 months), HCC was diagnosed in 43 patients. With the limitation derived from the uncertainty of consecutive patients' inclusion and from a sizable proportion of dropouts (153/652), the incidence of HCC was 2.9 per 100 patient-years, and one- and two-year cumulative incidences of 1.8% and 5.2%, respectively. Although HCC fulfilled the Milan criteria in 33 cases (77%), only 24 patients (56%) underwent curative treatment. An explorative prognostic analysis showed that age, male gender, baseline alpha-fetoprotein, bilirubin and prothrombin were significantly associated with the risk of HCC occurrence. Among 73 deaths, 61 had a recorded cause and 27 were directly attributable to liver disease. At two years, OS, EFS and cumulative incidences of liver-related deaths were 93% (95% CI 90.5-95.4), 80.3% (95% CI 76.9-83.9), and 3.2% (95% CI 1.6-4.8) respectively. CONCLUSION: This large prospective cohort incompletely representative of the whole population with alcoholic cirrhosis showed: a) an annual incidence of HCC of up to 2.9 per 100 patient-years, suggesting that surveillance might be cost effective in these patients; b) a high proportion of HCC detected within the Milan criteria, but only one-half of detected HCC cases were referred for curative treatments; c) a two-year mortality rate of up to 7%. LAY SUMMARY: Cirrhosis is a risk factor for primary liver cancer, leading to recommendations for periodic screening. However, for alcohol-related liver disease the rational of periodic screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is controversial, as registry and databased studies have suggested a low incidence of HCC in these patients and highly competitive mortality rates. In this study, a large cohort of patients with biopsy-proven alcoholic cirrhosis prospectively screened for HCC demonstrated a high annual incidence of HCC (2.9%) and a high percentage of small cancers theoretically eligible for curative treatment. This suggests that patients with liver disease related to alcohol should not be ruled out of screening.

VALIDATION OF CLIF-C-ACLF SCORE FOR ALCOHOLIC LIVER CIRRHOSIS.

The concept of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) covers acute deterioration of the liver function in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis (ALC) caused by secondary or extra-hepatic provoking factors (PF) leading to dysfunction of target organs. CLIF-C-ACLF score refers to the number of decompensated organs/systems and is recommended for predicting outcome in patients with ALC. Objective - to compare the diagnostic value of the Child-Pugh score and the CLIF-C-ACLF score for predicting short-term mortality in patients with ALC. The clinical data of 150 patients with ALC were retrospectively analyzed. Enrolled patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence / absence of PF 3 months before the death: I group (n = 83) - without PF (CLF), group II (n= 67) - with PF (ACLF). To assess the severity of ALC we used the Child-Pugh score and the CLIF-C-ACLF score. Infectious complications were considered as PF. The sensitivity of the STMP by Child-Pugh score in group 1 was 100% (95% CI 58.9-100), specificity was 38.9% (95% CI 30.9-47.4). The sensitivity for the CLIF-C-ACLF score was 100% (95% CI 58.9-100), specificity-93.75% (95% CI 88.5-97.1).A. The sensitivity of STMP by Child-Pugh score in group II was 100% (95% CI 54.1-100), specificity was 29.5% (95% CI -42.6 to 18.5). The sensitivity of STMP by CLIF-C-ACLF in score II was 100% (95% CI 58.9-100), specificity was 88.5% (95% CI 77.8-95.2). The CLIF-C-ACLF corresponded to the model of excellent quality in groups I (0.99) and II (0.97) and was higher than the Child-Pugh score in both groups (p = 0.012 and p = 0.015 respectively). The diagnostic value of the CLIF-C-ACLF score for predicting short-term mortality in patients with ALC is higher than Child-Pugh, especially for acute decompensation of ALC caused by precipitating factors.